submitted by Tokenomy to tokenomyofficial [link] [comments]
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. DollarsFirstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto DollarsDue to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
Institutional DevelopmentsIn addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
Future OpportunitiesThere is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
 How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
 The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
 Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
 Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
 Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
 Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
 McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
 Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
 Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
 Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
 Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
 The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
 Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
 Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
 New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
 Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
 Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
 Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
 Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
 Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
Capítulos anteriores:submitted by jreddredd to merval [link] [comments]
Capítulo 3: Derivados
Aplica mismo disclaimer que el capítulo 1
En esta oportunidad vamos a analizar oportunidades de inversión en activos físicos a través de tokens en Ethereum.
Synthetix es un protocolo que permite comprar y vender "activos sintéticos" o dicho de otra manera, lograr exposición a activos del "mundo real" mediante el trading de Synths. Todo on-chain, sin intermediarios o terceros que controlen las operaciones.
Los Synths son tokens basados en Ethereum que proveen exposición a activos como el oro, plata, monedas (USD, GBP), commodities, índices de stock markets y próximamente incluso a acciones individuales. Estos tokens cotizan como el activo que representan y van siguiendo el precio según el mercado real de ese activo. Aunque lejos esta de ser lo mismo, sería como un ETF tipo GLD que "sigue" el precio del oro físico. Algunos de los Synths que hoy están disponibles son:
De esta manera uno puede, con sus USDC o DAI, comprar por ejemplo sXAU y de esa manera tener un criptoactivo que representa una onza de oro, generando exposición a su fluctuación de precio. O diversificarse en varias monedas y armar una cartera con Euros, Libras y Francos Suizos para no estar únicamente expuesto al Dólar. Siempre con la posibilidad de hacerlo en fracciones (0.045 sXAU) y sin restricciones, reglamentaciones, trabas, burocracia y todo el listado que venimos repitiendo en estas guías.
La cotización de sXAU con respecto al dólar (sUSD) en el último mes
En poco tiempo, a medida que se vayan lanzando nuevos synths, uno podría armarse una cartera de inversiones de la misma manera que lo hace en un broker tradicional con acciones de diferentes empresas o ETFs compuestos de mercados enteros como el S&P500.
Para empezar a usar Synthetix no hace falta nada más que un wallet y tener disponibles sUSD, que puede comprarse en varios exchanges o en la misma plataforma de Synthetix. Luego ingresar al exchange e intercambiar por el Synth que se quiera. Ese Synth se puede vender en cualquier momento en el mismo exchange por sUSD, que luego podrá ser intercambiado por la crypto que se quiera (o mantener en sUSD que representa al dólar, al igual que USDC o DAI).
Hoy cada Synth sigue al precio de su activo mediante un Oracle, que es un servicio centralizado que informa el precio. Ese es hoy el "punto débil" del sistema, ya que ese Oracle podría ser hackeado o intervenido, pero ya se está trabajando en utilizar ChainLink (otra blockchain descentralizada) para informar los precios y poder deshacerse de los Oracles. El proyecto y todos los synths están garantizados por el token SNX que es guardado como collateral, aportado por gente que por bloquear ("staking") sus SNX en la plataforma recibe a cambio ingresos por los trading fees del exchange. Hoy el proyecto está sobrecolateralizado en un 820%.
Synthetix es uno de los proyectos más innovadores en el espacio y el segundo en volumen de operación después de Maker DAO (donde se crean los DAI). Hoy todavía es limitado en la diversidad de Activos o Synths que se pueden comprar, pero de a poco van agregando más cantidad y variedad (acciones, commodities, forex). La promesa de la plataforma es llegar a un momento donde una persona pueda invertir on-chain y de manera descentralizada con exactamente las mismas posibilidades y oportunidades que en un broker tradicional.
Leer más: AMA con el fundador de Synthetix, Kain Warwick y su CTO Justin Moses (en inglés)
Otro proyecto interesante para participar de la economía real vía blockchain es RealT. Antes que nada es importante aclarar la diferencia con Synthetix: esta plataforma tiene un nivel de centralización muchísimo mayor, depende de un administrador central que gestiona la inversión mediante diferentes vehículos legales en USA, consiste en la inversión en activos físicos y varias cuestiones más que la convierten en un híbrido que igualmente me parece que es interesante evaluar.
RealT permite participar de manera fraccionada de un negocio inmobiliario real en USA (por ahora, en Detroit), a través de tokens en Ethereum. Está apuntado a pequeños inversores internacionales, permitiendo de una manera muy sencilla y con poca inversión ser parte de la compra de una propiedad y luego de sus ingresos por el alquiler. Sería algo asi como una réplica digital de invertir en un REIT en el mercado tradicional (como siempre aclaro, con sus obvias diferencias).
RealT ofrece distintas propiedades fraccionadas en partes de aproximadamente 0.1% de su valor. Hoy por ejemplo se puede comprar por $53.13 un token de una propiedad de $74.389, que va a generar $5.88 por año de ingresos por el alquiler (después de fees), rindiendo un 11.06%. Se pueden comprar cuantas tokens se deseen, y se puede participar de varias propiedades para diversificar. Lo interesante de todo esto es que la participación implica la compra de un token en Ethereum (RealToken), y a partir de ahi quien tenga ese token recibirá los dividendos en forma diaria en DAI. Esto quiere decir que también existe un mercado secundario, ya que los RealTokens pueden luego transferirse y venderse, ya sea a través de su sitio o en Uniswap. Para participar en una compra es necesario registrarse en el sitio y pasar por el proceso KYC presentando documentación, y las direcciones ETH adonde se transfiere el token deben ser whitelisteadas con la comprobación de identidad (los puristas de la descentralización se están arrancando los ojos al leer esto)
Es posible ver la actividad de cada propiedad en el blockchain (ejemplo), con sus transferencias, pagos, etc. Desde el lado legal, para cada propiedad se crea una LLC, donde los dueños son los tenedores del token, y estas LLC son independientes de la quien las administra (RealT). Sin dudas es el proyecto más riesgoso de los que venimos comentando por su alto nivel de centralización, pero por otro lado ofrece un rendimiento anual muy alto y la posibilidad de diversificar en un negocio distinto y atado a la economía real.
Próximo capítulo: robots de inversión
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental euro forecast for today
EUUSD bulls do not believe Christine Lagarde’s optimismECB is monitoring the euro exchange rate, but it is not willing to start a currency war now. Christine Lagarde expressed optimism about the euro-area economic recovery, the ECB president hasn’t signaled the further monetary easing in the near future. Lagarde’s speech should have encouraged the EUUSD bulls, but they didn’t believe the good news, so they didn’t go ahead. It looks like a catch. The ECB officials express concerns about the euro strengthening ahead of the Governing Council meeting, and, next, the ECB president sounds hawkish.
At the press conference, Christine Lagarde several times stressed that exchange rates and the euro appreciation were not the ECB policy target. However, the exchange rate was the most discussed topic at the Governing Council meeting in September. According to a Reuters source familiar with the matter, the ECB officials have agreed that the EUUSD rally resulted from a faster economic rebound in the euro area compared to the US growth, the Fed’s easy monetary policy, the increased confidence in the currency bloc due to the management of the pandemic fallout. Moreover, the upcoming presidential election in the US weighs on the US dollar. Bloomberg’s leading indicators signal that the GDP recovery is the fastest in Germany. After a temporary downturn in France, Italy, and Spain on concern about the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, the economic activity is gradually increasing. The UK, US, and Canada persistently lag behind.
Dynamics of the economic recovery
Four sources on the ECB's Governing Council told Reuters that the ECB acknowledges the negative effects of the euro's strength on inflation and growth, but the central bank is not willing to start a currency war. Speaking after the meeting, two sources said they saw $1.20 as not far from the equilibrium exchange rate at present. According to Citigroup, if the EUUSD is up by another 5%, the European Central Bank will take active measures. In the meanwhile, the regulator is carefully monitoring the exchange rates of the regional currency. The Governing Council policymakers at the meeting considered adopting the language used to stem the euro's previous rally, in early 2018, when the former ECB President Mario Draghi described "volatility in the exchange rate" as "a source of uncertainty", according to Reuters.
The Reuters sources say the southern countries of the eurozone are much more concerned about the euro strengthening than the northern ones. The Governing Council hawks wanted Lagarde to note the great progress in the euro-area economic recovery. François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the French central bank, insisted on this especially strongly.
So, the EUUSD bulls feared verbal interventions, signals of monetary easing, and the ECB willingness to follow the Fed’s example and target the average inflation. None of the fears came true. However, the euro hasn’t consolidated above $1.19. Are the buyers so weak? Or, they could feel a catch and will resume attacks after the ECB officials’ speeches. I suppose both scenarios should be considered. If the euro rises above $1.192, it will be relevant to buy. If it slides down below the support levels of $1.1795 and $1.1765, we should sell the euro versus the dollar.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today
USD shorts are now the most popular Forex trading strategyThe market is driven by emotions. If the EUUSD bulls are taken by the euphoria, no negative economic data will hold them back! The U.S. industrial production data have exceeded the forecasts, the U.S. retail sales are back at the pre-crisis levels. In the euro-area, however, the euro-area employment has dropped the most on record since the series begun in 1995. But the euro buyers are going ahead. Investors are confident that the euro-area economy will recover, and the U.S. growth will face a recession amid the coronavirus pandemic.
BofA Merrill Lynch notes that 36% of asset managers surveyed by the bank said the U.S. dollar sell positions are their favourite trading strategy, the highest in the history of research. This strategy is much ahead of all the others, its proportion increased by 6% from 30% in July, and, most likely, it will continue to gain popularity. BofA Merrill Lynch names, among other reasons, the loss of the greenback's position as a reserve currency. In fact, the countries that are under pressure from the USA are active participants in the process of de-dollarization. The proportion of the US currency in the trade settlements between Russia and China has been for the first time below 50%. In 2015, for example, the dollar’s share in the Russia-China trade settlements was more than 90%.
Dynamics of USD share in China-Russia trade settlements
Source: Wall Street Journal
Washington tries to affect Moscow using sanctions, but it uses much more sophisticated measures concerning Beijing. President Donald Trump ordered ByteDance to divest the U.S. operations of its app TikTok as the social media will cease to work in the USA in 90 days. A U.S. reprieve that had allowed some US companies to work with Huawei without a license now expires. The USA warns that the sanctions will target other China’s corporations, including Alibaba.
The US-China relations are getting tense, the parties even delayed the meeting planned for August 15 to assess the fulfilment of obligations under the trade agreement signed in January. The EUUSD bulls, however, are not concerned about the trade conflict escalation. They expect that amid such a scenario the euro’s share in the global FX reserves will increase. According to 40% of asset managers polled by BofA Merrill Lynch, this process will start already in 2021.
Forex seems to be taken away by euphoria. Hedge funds’ dollar longs versus the world eight major currencies have been in the red for the first time since May 2018. The main reason is said to be speculators’ growing interest in the euro.
Dynamics of speculative dollar positions and Treasury real yields
Of course, bulls’ enthusiasm used to quickly result in the capitulation in the past. However, under the current conditions, I mean the difficult epidemiological situation in the USA, Fed’s grim projections, and the upcoming presidential election in November, the US stock indexes are growing, and the EUUSD can well grow as well. Amid the current situation, it is important to check buyers’ willingness to continue the rally anyway. If the resistance at 1.188 is broken out, the pair can well continue rising.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
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